Examining LFC’s Strategy

AN ARTICLE BY MATTY FIRST IN A SERIES

Every American businessman is born from the same starting place: ego. Every grifter dreams of gaming the system, of getting one over on those fools in Washington, of the quick money trick. Rarely do those ever pan out. But occasionally, they do. In my time with you all, I’ve grown a lot. I’ve matured with time, gained wisdom and insight and perhaps, most importantly, formed my own opinions. Previously, I hailed FSG’s Moneyball scheme as innovative and groundbreaking in the game of football. Moneyball, after all, is perhaps the most famous example of a grifter striking it rich in the sports world. However, after examining recent events as well as those prior, I came to the same conclusion I’ve believed in for a while now: analytics are quite possibly the best thing, but they’re not the only thing. LFC’s struggles aren’t necessarily because of an over-dependence on analytics, nor is it entirely because of their business practices. But every small flaw adds up, and it creates something awfully similar to American politics. FSG’s system, hailed as proactive and revolutionary, isn’t proactive at all. It’s billed as such to keep up the illusion of superiority, but it is not reality. Instead, FSG acts like the American businessman, the typical politician, in more ways than one. They react impulsively to bad seasons that were created entirely because of their inactivity and desire to save money. Then, because they’ve now lost tons of money, they scrimp again and watch the team decay in other areas. They’re in a constant short-term focus of saving money, which creates panic buys. The buys only worked because of the analytics, the practice itself shouldn’t be encouraged. Instead of consistently refreshing the squad, it’s feast or famine, which leads to disastrous effects. It could all be avoided with foresight and proper planning. But who needs that when you have to save, save, save, now, now, now?

A point I’ve repeatedly made on here is the idea of how a team should use the transfer market. Ideally you get 2-3 new signings per season. Squad churn is enough to keep things fresh without having to change too many ideas. Ideally you’d buy younger players so the team doesn’t ever get too old in key areas. Ideally you’d also ship out players who are injury-prone, or old. I should note that FSG aren’t the only team guilty of not following this method. City for example did the same thing, panic buys that could’ve been avoided had they been proactive in dealing with problems. Again, I don’t care that signing Mac Allister, Gravenberch, Szoboszlai and Endo in one window worked as well as it did. That’s luck, that’s scouting, that’s not good process. The inspiration for this article, funny enough, comes from a conversation with a fellow fan over the lack of spending in the 2019 window after Klopp won the Champions League. He said at the time we would come to regret only signing Adrian. He was right, in my eyes at least. Instead of starting to refresh a midfield that had numerous players either starting to age or becoming injury-prone, we didn’t. Instead of adding another attacker to take a load off Firmino, Mane and Salah, we didn’t. Crucially, we didn’t sign a CB or a backup LB to take a load off Virgil and Robertson, or to provide a proper partner for Virgil that wasn’t injury-prone like Matip and Gomez. Both brilliant players, mind you, and you can get away with having some injury-prone players in a squad, but you shouldn’t depend on injury-prone players to start games consistently. It didn’t matter, seeing as we took 99 points in the Premier League, romped to the title by a margin of 18 points, and had many players hit their peak form.

After that summer, despite rumors that Covid would’ve ruined the plans of squad refreshment, we did sign three new players. Thiago, Jota and Tsimikas were all successes in my eyes, and all filled gaps in the squad that needed addressing. Yet, crucially, we once again didn’t sign a CB. We even sold Lovren, our only cover besides Matip and Gomez. If anything happened to Virgil, we would’ve been screwed. And sure enough, Pickford happened to Virgil. Thiago, an injury-prone player at Bayern, missed three months due to injury. A brilliant player, exactly what the midfield needed, but a bit older. Throw in continued injury issues for Ox and Keita, and suddenly midfielders dropped like flies as well. Firmino, having played almost every game for years, suffered a drop in form. However, FSG did the right thing after this season and opened up the checkbook for Luis Diaz and Ibou Konate. Sure, the midfield problem would continue to exist, but you had maybe one more year before that really became a problem. Still, you had to address it by 2022 at the latest before a combination of overuse and age started to ravage players like Henderson and Fabinho, who were already having to play too many games to offset injuries to Thiago, Ox, and Keita. You had Jones and Elliott from the academy, but more youth was required. Anyways, Diaz ensured we still had lightning pace on the wing as Mane’s physical abilities began to decline, even with his production still being excellent. Konate was another injury-prone purchase, but at least he was young and had potential. Still not quite the top tier stud you’d like next to Virgil, but you can get by with 2 of Matip, Gomez and Konate likely being healthy at the same time. This was the final year everything really clicked for Klopp’s Liverpool.

What do you mean Darwin Nunez is a Liverpool player? Sure, he seemed great against us in the Champions League, but really? You’re gonna change the system and spend HOW MUCH for a striker with ONE YEAR OF PRODUCTION? It just seems redundant to buy Nunez when Jota and Firmino are already here. Sure, Firmino is getting old, but wait, we’re selling Mane? Now we have a striker when we need a winger, and our only other signing is an 18-year-old right back who won’t be good enough yet to be a backup to Trent, which is something we should talk about considering how many games he’s playing. So our midfield now has 4 30-year-olds, our starting CBs are both over 30 and that room is largely injury-prone, and we’re just not gonna care? Ok, roll the dice and see what happens……and we’re shit. We’re so shit we don’t even make the Champions League. Oh wow, Thiago got hurt? A striker with one year of production who can’t even speak English isn’t fitting like a glove? Diaz got hurt because there’s no backup to him, ok, let’s sign…..Cody Gakpo because he’s available. Even though he’s not fast enough to play as a winger in our system, which means we’re gonna have him shoehorned into the team as a false nine, a position he’s never played before, and push Firmino out the door….OK then. What do you MEAN Klopp’s essentially the sporting director now? That’s way too much for one man to deal with! Oh, we also let five players run down their contracts and leave, including Milner and Firmino. At least Ox and Keita are gone.

So now that Klopp’s doing two jobs at once, those contract extensions for Mo, Virgil and Trent are just sitting there on his desk. He’s using his Bundesliga connections to light the midfield ablaze and get us Szoboszlai, Endo and Gravenberch. Three different profiles, all sorely needed. Alexis Mac Allister wants to play for us AND has a cheap release clause? Come on down! Some last minute reshuffling required after selling both our captain and our holding midfielder to Saudi Arabia, because they predictably fell off a cliff due to overuse. Because we didn’t properly restock the midfield for five years. Our CB room is somehow still the same. Our attack is good but inconsistent, but at least there’s room for Nunez to operate now. Or is there, because Gakpo still doesn’t look right on the wing. Salah could use a backup, doesn’t mean he’s getting one though. Klopp’s got these guys playing great! And now he’s gone because he doesn’t want to be a manager and sporting director at once. Fuck.

Klopp’s gone, and in comes Arne Slot. He’s a reserved type, he wants to see what he has so he doesn’t want to rock the boat. His style seems a good fit for the team, with players like Gravenberch in particular seemingly primed for improvement. We do sign a backup for Salah, but he can’t play more than 15 minutes per game so I don’t know how that’ll help. Our CB room has been temporarily saved by the emergence of the young Jarell Quansah…..and he’s been hooked at halftime in the first game under Slot and essentially banished to the reserves. We signed another goalie because despite having a great starter and a great backup, we just can’t have enough good goalies, I guess. But notice that things are getting a bit stale again. Salah and Virgil are getting older, as are Robertson and Alisson. Honestly good call from the club to future proof the goalie position. Tsimikas is excellent depth but probably not a successor to Robertson. Bradley has developed into a nice backup for Trent. Oh, make that starter because Trent’s gone. The CB room needs at minimum a rock solid successor to Virgil waiting in the wings. We need a young protege for Mo. We could stick with Jota and Nunez at the striker position but we could use an upgrade there. Diaz and Gakpo have finally flourished together but the club don’t want to give Diaz a new deal so he’s gonna leave. Looks like another fallow period means we’re gearing up for another major spend.

It is here where I once again bring up the tragic passing of Diogo Jota. May his soul rest in peace, and may his family and friends continue to be comforted.

So Jota just died, and our response is to sell our other striker? And we’re selling Diaz too? And Harvey Elliott? And Quansah, our one hope at the CB position? Kelleher’s gone too, which means that Georgian guy better be ready to step up and replace Alisson sooner than later. Hugo Ekitike is a typical Liverpool signing, maybe a bit expensive but we’re counting on the stats to correct themselves and he’ll make the same leap that Salah and Mane did. Milos Kerkez? Ok, as long as you split time between him and Robertson so both players benefit. Jeremie Frimpong? He’s tiny, and not quite a winger nor a right back. Florian Wirtz? Our midfield was the core of the team because it was strong, big and defensively sound with the technical ability to create plays as well. Now we’re adding a small playmaker into the team without proper structure to support him. And we just broke the transfer record for another striker. Alex Isak is boss, I know, but did we really need to do that when we already spent the big bucks on Hugo? We still need a winger to replace Diaz, and it’s not gonna be this 17-year-old who’s one step away from serious injury. Slot doesn’t like Endo so another midfielder would be nice in order to lessen the load on the top guys. Oh cool, we signed a young CB. He already suffered a serious knee injury and now our depth is again shot at CB. Better hope Virgil and Salah don’t fall off a cliff due to age and overuse. Oh wait, they did? Beans.

Now that I’ve exhaustively gone through the last seven years worth of transactions, I hope you can see a problem emerging. FSG’s never a year early to fix potential problems, they’re almost always a year too late. The midfield rotted for five years until it hit a breaking point. Our CB room hasn’t had the change it’s needed for years and now it’s a shambles. Our attack has been consistently refreshed, but in a disjointed manner, buying redundant players at times and failing to secure key depth. Now I know what you’re thinking, where would these players come from? Part of the magic of Jurgen Klopp was development. Trent, obviously, but every single one of the original Klopp core was chosen and then developed. No one was a finished product superstar when they came here, and very quickly they were. The only reason signings didn’t work out at that time was because of injuries. I noted often that we signed players, especially in the early part of the timespan we covered, with significant injury histories. When we already had players in those positions with significant injury histories. Again, those players are alright as depth. You can’t count on injury-prone players to be consistent starters. For example, Konate isn’t quite a starter-level player, but he should’ve never been playing so many games in the first place. The club has been significantly less efficient since 2019, and that is ultimately one of the main reasons we are where we are now.

The signings themselves, besides a few missteps, have been fine. It’s more so when they happened and also who they were that is the issue. Why break a successful system? Why buy players who won’t be a clean fit with the club? Why load up excessively at striker, twice, and ignore other areas of the field? Why neglect pace when it was arguably the main advantage LFC had over the opposition? Likewise, why neglect physicality in the midfield when our specialty used to be bullying the opposition in the area? Why sign players who are either too small or too lazy to not press at a high level when the system is built on the high press? You might wonder why I’m so attached to the system. In my mind, the system and players must work in synergy in order to achieve success. The players must fit the system, and the system must elevate the players. The system, when properly executed, should beat the opposition in various ways, because of the positions in which players take up. Those players, bought or developed from the academy to play in the system, thrive because they perfectly fit what is required of them. Typically, every great team has a game breaker, a player so special that the system becomes a way to accentuate their talent. Firmino was the original game breaker. Then it became Salah. Usually this player is an attacker, because the game breaker decides games. However, with rocks like Virgil and Alisson to defend and protect leads, it becomes even easier for Liverpool’s system to be centered around scoring goals and winning games.

With all this being said, there is still more to come. Until then, enjoy.